In 1997, concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, reach the highest levels in at least 400,000 years, as measured in Arctic ice cores. The World Meteorological Organization report says that carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are now far above pre-industrial levels, with no sign of a reversal of the upward trend. “The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5m years ago, when the temperature was 2-3C warmer and sea level was 10-20 metres higher than now,” said the WMO secretary general, Petteri Taalas.
The increase in climate-warming carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is being fuelled by the continued burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Worldwide, fossil-fuel use pumped 2.7% more CO2 into the air in 2018 than in 2017. In 2017, carbon dioxide emissions totaled 9.9 billion metric tons (gigatons). Such emissions fuel global warming and climate change. CO2 is a greenhouse gas which acts like a blanket to trap the sun’s heat close to the Earth’s surface. The more CO2 that’s emitted, the more heat that gets trapped.
According to the National Climate Assessment, the quality of food is also expected to decline, due to rising levels of CO2 which will reduce the presence of key nutrients —such as iron, zinc, and protein. As well, extreme weather patterns and rising temperatures are adversely affecting food production. Crop yields are falling worldwide; thus reversing a trend of rising agricultural productivity and threatening food security around the world.
Oceans absorb excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, leading to rising acid levels in oceans, which is one of the biggest threats to coral reefs. This ‘osteoporosis of the sea’ threatens everything from food security to tourism to livelihood. The speed by which oceans’ acid levels have risen has caught scientists off-guards, says the head of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Ideally, global warming should be below 2° C. However, despite the Paris Agreement, temperatures are likely to rise by 1.5° C between 2030 and 2052 if global warming continues at its current pace and if the world fails to take rapid and unprecedented measures to stem the increase, says a U.N. report.
On October 8th 2018, a 1,200 page report written by 91 researchers from 44 countries provided a sobering read of what a half-degree difference means for our planet. “At 1.5° C, 6% of insect species, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates would lose more than half their habitat. The figures for 2° C are 18%, 16% and 8%, respectively. At that temperature rise, ecosystems covering between a twelfth and a fifth of Earth’s land mass can be expected to undergo transformation to another type — savannah to desert, say. More dramatically, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finds it almost certain that a 2° C rise would wipe out more than 99% of corals.”1
“Permitting a rise of 2° C rather than 1.5° C could also see 420m more people exposed regularly to record heat. Several hundred million more would have to contend with climate-induced poverty Food security would decline and water scarcity increase, especially in poor and already-fragile areas such as the Sahel region of Africa, just south of the Sahara desert. And an additional 10cm of sea-level rise could hurt the livelihoods of more than 10m people living on the coast.”2
In order to save the planet, carbon dioxide emissions need to drop by 45% within the next 10 years. Ways of achieving this would involve the phasing out of coal, increasing carbon-free sources of electricity and energy, and creating negative emissions by planting more forests which absorb carbon dioxide.
The world is at the crossroads of a perfect storm situation. We are over-fishing our oceans to feed an ever-increasing planet. More people now inhabit and recreate on the coasts, leading to more pollution on land and sea. Peoples in developing countries rely on natural resources for their basic livlihoods yet have little or no control over these resources.
1Global Warming, The Economist; Oct 13th 2018
2Global Warming, The Economist; Oct 13th 2018